Current Status and Future Potential of Liquid Biofuel Production for Green and Circular Economies in Eastern Africa: A Case Study of Ethiopia, Kenya, and Tanzania

Abstract

There is growing global interest in the use of liquid biofuels across various sectors as part of sustainable bioeconomies. This study examines the status, trends, and potential of liquid biofuel production in the Eastern African countries of Ethiopia, Kenya, and Tanzania. Using field and factory visits, interviews, and discussions with key stakeholders, the suitability of different land areas for biofuel crops was assessed to be: Ethiopia has 31 million hectares suitable for croton plants and 0.7 million hectares for sugarcane; Kenya has 18.6 million hectares, and Tanzania has 85.64 million hectares suitable for sweet sorghum. Annual ethanol production between 2020 and 2022 was 24.25 million liters in Ethiopia, 8.25 million liters in Kenya, and 1.4 million liters in Tanzania. Lignocellulosic residues were identified as promising feedstocks, with potential annual production capacities of 8.2 billion liters in Kenya, 10.8 billion liters in Tanzania, and 35.7 billion liters in Ethiopia. Microalgae also emerged as a viable alternative feedstock. Biofuels, whether pure or blended, reduce emissions by 10–90% compared to fossil fuels. However, investment in first-generation feedstocks has faced setbacks due to inadequate planning and limited involvement of smallholders. The study concludes that increased awareness, improved productivity, adoption of high-yielding varieties, and development of local technologies are essential to advance biofuel production in the region.