Establishing Climate Variability for Adaptation of Maritime Cultural and Natural Heritage to Climate Change in South Coast, Kenya

Abstract

Climate variability presents novel challenges to the conservation of maritime cultural and natural heritage. In the south Kenya coast, responses to extreme temperatures and sudden onset high rainfall worsen the condition of historic buildings and sacred landscapes, putting maritime communities at risk.  To provide a baseline for prioritizing conservation planning initiatives, the paper sought to establish climate variability for the adaptation of maritime heritage to climate change. Between 1994 and 2024, average maximum and minimum temperatures rose by +1.6°C and +1.4°C, respectively. Linear regressions of average maximum and minimum temperatures showed high extremes of 32.10°C to 32.40°C and low extremes of 19.8°C to 20°C, respectively. The leptokurtic distribution showed a substantial chance of severe outcomes in average minimum and maximum temperatures in September and November, respectively. Over 30 years, the average maximum rainfall increased by 190mm with linear regressions indicating high extremes between 1500mm and 1600mm. The leptokurtic distribution revealed a substantial chance of extreme outcomes in average maximum rainfall in November. Average maximum and minimum temperatures for the final two years were considerably higher than the first two years; t (-5.2086, 1.0000) = 6.3138, P=0.0604) and t (--3.7226, 1.0000) = 6.3138, P=0.0835). However, average mean rainfall over the first two years was significantly lower than that over the latter two years t (-0.525, 1.000) = 6.3138, P =0.3460). Overall, unpredictability of short and long rainy seasons has increased during the last ten years compared to the previous twenty. Conservation planning is to consider physical stabilizations, shoreline consolidation, mangrove restoration, land use control, adjustments of setbacks and buffer zones to adapt maritime heritage to climate change.